Time-to-event modeling for hospital length of stay prediction for COVID-19 patients.

Providing timely patient care while maintaining optimal resource utilization is one of the central operational challenges hospitals have been facing throughout the pandemic. Hospital length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of hospital efficiency, quality of patient care, and operational resilience. Numerous researchers have developed regression or classification models to predict LOS. However, conventional models suffer from the lack of capability to make use of typically censored clinical data. We propose to use time-to-event modeling techniques, also known as survival analysis, to predict the LOS for patients based on individualized information collected from multiple sources. The performance of six proposed survival models is evaluated and compared based on clinical data from COVID-19 patients.

An interpretable multi-task system for clinically applicable COVID-19 diagnosis using CXR.

BACKGROUND: With the emergence of continuously mutating variants of coronavirus, it is urgent to develop a deep learning model for automatic COVID-19 diagnosis at early stages from chest X-ray images. Since laboratory testing is time-consuming and requires trained laboratory personal, diagnosis using chest X-ray (CXR) is a befitting option. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we proposed an interpretable multi-task system for automatic lung detection and COVID-19 screening in chest X-rays to find an alternate method of testing which are reliable, fast and easily accessible, and able to generate interpretable predictions that are strongly correlated with radiological findings. METHODS: The proposed system consists of image preprocessing and an unsupervised machine learning (UML) algorithm for lung region detection, as well as a truncated CNN model based on deep transfer learning (DTL) to classify chest X-rays into three classes of COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal. The Grad-CAM technique was applied to create class-specific heatmap images in order to establish trust in the medical AI system. RESULTS: Experiments were performed with 15,884 frontal CXR images to show that the proposed system achieves an accuracy of 91.94% in a test dataset with 2,680 images including a sensitivity of 94.48% on COVID-19 cases, a specificity of 88.46% on normal cases, and a precision of 88.01% on pneumonia cases. Our system also produced state-of-the-art outcomes with a sensitivity of 97.40% on public test data and 88.23% on a previously unseen clinical data (1,000 cases) for binary classification of COVID-19-positive and COVID-19-negative films. CONCLUSION: Our automatic computerized evaluation for grading lung infections exhibited sensitivity comparable to that of radiologist interpretation in clinical applicability. Therefore, the proposed solution can be used as one element of patient evaluation along with gold-standard clinical and laboratory testing.

Development of a prognostic model for mortality in COVID-19 infection using machine learning.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel disease resulting from infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which has quickly risen since the beginning of 2020 to become a global pandemic. As a result of the rapid growth of COVID-19, hospitals are tasked with managing an increasing volume of these cases with neither a known effective therapy, an existing vaccine, nor well-established guidelines for clinical management. The need for actionable knowledge amidst the COVID-19 pandemic is dire and yet, given the urgency of this illness and the speed with which the healthcare workforce must devise useful policies for its management, there is insufficient time to await the conclusions of detailed, controlled, prospective clinical research. Thus, we present a retrospective study evaluating laboratory data and mortality from patients with positive RT-PCR assay results for SARS-CoV-2. The objective of this study is to identify prognostic serum biomarkers in patients at greatest risk of mortality. To this end, we develop a machine learning model using five serum chemistry laboratory parameters (c-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen, serum calcium, serum albumin, and lactic acid) from 398 patients (43 expired and 355 non-expired) for the prediction of death up to 48 h prior to patient expiration. The resulting support vector machine model achieved 91% sensitivity and 91% specificity (AUC 0.93) for predicting patient expiration status on held-out testing data. Finally, we examine the impact of each feature and feature combination in light of different model predictions, highlighting important patterns of laboratory values that impact outcomes in SARS-CoV-2 infection.